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For subscribers, the historical performance of past rankings can be explored through our Top 100 movement trackers from previous seasons: 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022.
In preparation for our forthcoming July Top 100 Prospects update, I wanted to assess the value of our in-season updates. Previous analyses focused on the offseason Top 100 lists, prompting this inquiry into how well in-season additions perform.
Since we began publishing monthly in-season updates in 2022, I investigated all players added during the May through August updates. The goal was clear: to answer whether in-season additions provide significant value or primarily reflect movement within the existing rankings.
Assessing In-Season Additions
Three essential questions guided this investigation:
- Are the newly added players performing as expected?
- Do these updates significantly enhance our understanding, or are they largely cosmetic?
- Is a complete offseason necessary for reliable insights, or can substantial evaluation occur midseason?
To maintain focus, I limited the analysis to players added during the 2022 and 2023 seasons, as they now represent talents entering their career peaks. Notable successes from May 2022 include players like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Brice Turang, while additions like Joey Wiemer and Chase Hampton exemplify varied career paths.
Some players from the recent lists, such as Samuel Basallo who was added in July 2023, already exhibit promising statistics like a 1.2 bWAR. Others, like Jacob Misiorowski, show potential for development into frontline starters with a current bWAR of 4.7.
For clarity, draftees were excluded from this study. While first-round selections like Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford naturally join the rankings post-draft, their inclusion would skew the focus on in-season prospect identification.
Comparing Offseason and In-Season Updates
This investigation revealed a notable disparity between offseason and in-season rankings. The May and June updates emerge as crucial periods for identifying rising prospects with the highest success rates. Conversely, the August updates, particularly for non-draftee additions, reflect diminished effectiveness.
| Month | Players | Reached MLB | 0+ WAR | 3+ WAR | 5+ WAR | 7.5+ WAR | 10+ WAR | Miss% | Hit% | STAR% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2022 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11.11% | 77.78% | 33.33% |
| June 2022 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 33.33% | 40.00% | 0.00% |
| July 2022 | 21 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 33.33% | 47.62% | 4.76% |
| August 2022 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33.33% | 33.33% | 0.00% |
| May 2023 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11.11% | 33.33% | 11.11% |
| July 2023 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 41.18% | 11.76% | 5.88% |
| August 2023 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33.33% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Notably, the June 2023 update was skipped as we were refining our processes, but this will not be a recurring issue moving forward.
Top In-Season Additions Breakdown
Here's a closer look at the standout prospects added during each in-season update of the last two years, categorized by performance:
May 2022
- Great: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF; Brice Turang, SS/2B; Steven Kwan, OF.
- Good: Andy Pages, OF; MacKenzie Gore, LHP; Brayan Bello, RHP.
- Misses (so far): Andrew Painter, RHP.
June 2022
- Great: Jackson Chourio, OF; Spencer Strider, RHP; Gavin Williams, RHP.
- Good: Ezequiel Tovar, SS; Evan Carter, OF.
- Misses (so far): Drew Romo, C; Caleb Kilian, LHP.
July 2022
- Great: Jackson Merrill, OF; James Wood, OF.
- Good: Masyn Winn, SS.
- Misses (so far): Yosver Zulueta, RHP; Brandon Pfaadt, RHP.
August 2022
- Great: None.
- Good: Jonathan Aranda, 1B.
- Misses (so far): Vaughn Grissom, SS/2B.
May 2023
- Great: Brice Turang, SS; Mason Miller, RHP.
- Misses (so far): Miguel Bleis, OF.
July 2023
- Great: Andrew Abbott, LHP; Jacob Misiorowski, RHP.
- Misses (so far): Chase Hampton, RHP; Yanquiel Fernandez, OF.
August 2023
- Great: None.
- Good: None.
Insights on Prospect Performance
The major takeaway is the timing of updates. Earlier additions in the season prove more effective in identifying potential stars, aligning with player performances that suggest changes to their scouting reports. By midseason, many standout breakouts have usually been established.
July's update particularly reflects a thinner pool of prospects, as graduating top talents reduces numbers while new draft entries have yet to impact the existing list. This dilution leads to a lower probability of significant midseason player visibility, with a clear contrast to earlier updates in May and June.
The analysis indicates a consistent value in more frequent in-season updates. Among the 78 players reviewed, 33 have achieved at least 3 WAR, with early 2022 additions averaging 4.5 bWAR, reinforcing the effectiveness of identifying midseason talent.
It's also prudent to recognize that some players categorized as misses may still prove successful. Young players like Jett Williams and Andrew Painter have room to shape their careers positively moving forward.
While the data showcases the benefits of these updates, there’s variability in their impact. Ongoing analysis will help refine future selections and enhance our rankings process for best performance on the field.
For more details, the original piece can be found here.
